Do you have a complex problem that’s not responding to efforts to fix it? Maybe the problem is you’re treating it like a complicated problem rather than a complex one.
The Fall of Kabul
After watching the last American soldier leave Afghanistan, I was reminded of how complex the world is. Not just complicated, but complex. There’s a significant difference. Using computers and data and the scientific method, we’ve become exceptionally good at solving complicated problems. Unfortunately, these tools are not nearly as effective at solving complex problems. In fact, the misapplication of these tools to complex problems often makes things worse.
In his book Team of Teams, General Stanley McChrystal explains:
“Being complex is different from being complicated.
Things that are complicated may have many parts, but those parts are joined, one to the next, in relatively simple ways….The workings of a complicated device like an internal combustion engine might be confusing, but they ultimately can be broken down into a series of neat and tidy deterministic relationships….
Complexity, on the other hand, occurs when the number of interactions between components increases dramatically [and] things quickly become unpredictable….”
Complicated
The gears inside an old grandfather clock are complicated. Computer programs are complicated. Building a skyscraper is complicated. Manufacturing iPhones is complicated.
At first, it might seem impossible to understand how these things work. But, if we break it down into individual pieces, you’ll see that each individual piece works in a consistent, rational way. Little by little, you can go through each of these gears and processes and see how they all add up.
These types of problems are effectively managed using a reductionist management system. This is basically a “divide and conquer” strategy where you break a big task into a series of smaller tasks and then hire experts to optimize each of these smaller tasks and then plug them back into the bigger system. Once the experts have figured it out, they put together a clear plan and tell everyone else what to do.
Complex
People are complex. Predicting next year’s hurricanes is complex. Forecasting GDP and the stock market is complex. Solving chronic health problems is complex. Influencing popular opinion is complex. Changing culture is complex. Reducing crime and poverty is complex.
Complex problems can’t be solved “scientifically.” There are lots of interconnected moving pieces. One seemingly insignificant thing (like the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil) can lead to a massive consequence somewhere else (like a hurricane in Florida). In complex environments, situations can change rapidly. One little social media post from an unknown user can quickly have international ramifications.
Reductionist approaches don’t work on complex problems. It’s impossible to gather all the potentially relevant data and identify all the potential outcomes. Gathering and analyzing the data and crafting a plan and building consensus and communicating the plan takes way too long. How do you craft a plan if you don’t have any data and can’t reasonably predict what’s going to happen? How will people know what to do without a specific plan?
Complexity is Increasing
The world is unquestionably becoming more and more complex. Computers, communication technologies, and globalization have us more interconnected than ever before. Even the simplest products have complex supply chains involving dozens of companies all over the world. Our economies, environments, and systems are becoming increasingly robust-yet-fragile. In the quest for efficiency, we’ve consolidated and removed redundancies to such a degree that a single point of failure can have massive ramifications.
How to Manage Complexity
In Team of Teams, General McChrystal provides several excellent suggestions for effectively managing complexity. In general, resiliency and adaptability become more important than rigidity and efficiency. You need less bureaucracy and more empowerment. Real-time collaboration with “pretty good” information becomes more useful than waiting for more/better data.
“Shared consciousness” among team members is central to General McChrystal’s recommendations. Everyone everywhere needs to understand what’s happening on a real-time basis. People from different teams and different locations need to be connected on both a formal and informal basis. Information needs to be shared widely. More people need to be included in all your communications and collaborations. People need to be physically working in the same space and overhearing each other’s conversations and aware of what others are working on.
Leaders are as important as ever, but their roles are completely different. Rather than being the smartest person in the room who makes all the decisions and tells everyone else what to do, the leader needs to be a “gardener” who creates an environment and a culture that nurtures shared consciousness, collaboration, and quick responses.
Application to Your Business
Every business has its own mix of complicated and complex. Leaders need to be sensitive to these differences and implement appropriate solutions. On complicated problems – it’s okay to slow down, gather data, bring in the experts, and focus on planning, standardization, and efficiency.
But on complex unpredictable problems, you need a totally different approach. Significantly increase the quantity and frequency of communication. Involve as many people as possible. Emphasize speed and adaptability. Empower people to make and act on decisions; but, insist that they widely communicate when they do so.
At DPX Consulting, we have decades of experience solving both complicated and complex problems. If you have complex problems that aren’t responding to your normal solutions, give us a call!
